ISSN 2413-2322 (Online)

ISSN 2221-1055 (Print)

UDS: 338.27:330.332:637:1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32317/2221-1055.201912016
Фінансові відносини та бухгалтерський облік

Forecasting trends and investments for the dairy industry and ensuring rational consumption of milk and dairy products by the population / Rossokha V.V., Petrychenko O.A. // Ekonomika APK. - 2019. - № 12 - P. 16

The purpose of the article is to uncover statistically significant trends and dependencies of the dairy industry that can continue in the future, and determine the directions of investments and volumes of investment resources for milk and dairy products that will ensure a rational rate of its consumption per capita. Research methods. During the research process were used the following scientific methods: methods of analysis and synthesis (for determining indicators of dynamics and prospects of the dairy industry development in context of ensuring a rational rate of internal consumption of milk and dairy products in terms of milk per capita; correlations and regressions (for analytical alignment of actual data, their replacement by the theoretical equations of trend with the highest coefficients of approximation, as well as the definition of predictive indicators of the dairy industry development); project analysis (for establishing scenarios of the dairy industry development with justification of their investment support). Research results. Analysis of the dynamics of the dairy industry showed a decrease in the livestock and cow productivity in all categories of farms, an increase in milk sales to processors by agricultural enterprises and a decrease in households. In the future, a decline rate in the cow livestock will outpace productivity growth, which will cause a decrease in the milk production in all categories of farms and sales to processing plants. The population in the country was estimated and a ratio of milk consumption per capita to the rational rate of consumption was established. Scenarios for the dairy industry development and volume of investments were worked out to ensure a rational rate of consumption of milk and dairy products per capita. Elements of scientific novelty. Regularities on trends of the dynamic series of indicators of the dairy industry development were mathematically proved. Analytical functions and estimation of approximation coefficients of adequacy of equations made a forecast on production and consumption of milk and dairy products. The level of milk production was established to ensure a rational rate of consumption of milk and dairy products per capita. Scenarios for the dairy industry development were worked out at an expense of different categories of farms and a certain amount of investments. Practical significance. The researched tendencies and predictive indicators of the dairy industry development might serve as a guideline for making managerial decisions on directions for increasing a level of milk production and processing in order to ensure a rational rate of consumption of milk and dairy products by the country’s population. Tabl.: 4. Figs.: 8. Refs.: 18.
Key words: milk; production; sales; dairy products; consumption; investment

References

  1. Shpychak, O.M., Bodnar, O.V., Pashko, S.O., et al. (2017). Analiz potohnoy konyunktury i proznoz rynkiv tvarynnyzkoy produkzyi v Ukraini: monohrafiia [An analysis of the current state and forecasts of markets of animal products in Ukraine: monograph]. O.M. Shpychak (Ed.). Kyiv: NNTs “IAE” [In Ukrainian].
  2. 10 prohnoziv shcodo rozvytku molochnoho rynku vid ecspertiv EvroTier [10 forecasts for the development of the dairy market by experts of EvroTier]. (2018). Milkua.info. Retrieved from: http://milkua.info/uk/post/10-prognoziv-sodo-rozvitku-molocnogo-rinku-vid-ekspertiv-eurotier-2018 [In Ukrainian].
  3. Vasylchenko, O.M. (2017). Svitovi tendenzyi rozvytku vyrobnyztva moloka ta transformazia molochnyh ferm [World trends of milk production development and transformation of dairy farms]. Efektyvna ekonomika, 12. Retrieved from: http://www.economy.nayka.com.ua/?op=1&z=5986 [In Ukrainian].
  4. Lupenko, Yu.O., Malik, M.Y., Shpykuliak, O.H., et al. (2014). Innovatsiine zabezpechennia rozvytku silskoho hospodarstva Ukrainy: problemy ta perspektyvy : monohrafiia [Innovative support for development of agriculture in Ukraine: problems and perspectives: monograph]. Kyiv: NNTs “IAE” [In Ukrainian].
  5. Kisil, M.I, Kropyvko, M.M., & Karpenko, I.H. (2015). Investyziynyi proekt stvorenia suhasnoy molohnoy fermy na 300 koriv [An investment project on creation of modern suckling farm is on 300 cows]. Kyiv: NNTs “IAE” [In Ukrainian].
  6. Kooperatyvy ta simeyni fermy – alternatyvna model zakupivel moloka [Cooperatives and family farms as an alternative model of milk procurement]. (2014). DairyNews. Retrieved from: https://www.slideshare.net/DairyNews/ss-42646356 [In Ukrainian].
  7. Lozynska, I.V. & Danko, U.I. (2018). Stratehichni priorytety rozvytku skotarstva v ahrarnych pidpryemstvach [Strategic priorities of animal husbandry development at agricultural enterprises]. Sozialno-economichni problemy sychasnoho periody Ukrainy: zbirnyk naukovyh praz, 1 (129), pp. 152–157 [In Ukrainian].
  8. Martuniuk, H.P. (2015). Perspektyvy rozvytku skotarstva v agrarnych formuvaniach Zytomyrskoi oblasti [Prospects for development of stock breeding in the agrarian formations of Zhytomyr region]. Biznesinform, 7, pp. 178–183 [In Ukrainian].
  9. Miznarodna finansova corporazia IFC [International Finance Corporation]. Retrieved from: https://www.ifc.org [In Ukrainian].
  10. Molochnay ferma okupitca za 7 let [A dairy farm will pay off in 7 years]. (2017). Agroportal. Retrieved from: http://agroportal.ua/news/vlast [In Russian].
  11. Na Volyni vidkryly molohnyi complex za evropeiskymy technologiamy [A milk complex on European technologies was opened in Volyn]. (2018). Agronews. Retrieved from: https://agronews.ua/node/104839 [In Ukrainian].
  12. Pro vnesenia zmin do zaconu Ukrainy “Pro fermerske hospodarstvo” schodo stymyluvania stvorenia ta dialnosti fermerskych hospodarstv: zakon Ukrainy vid 31.03.2016 р. № 1067-VIII [On amendments to a Law of Ukraine “On farm” on promotion of the creation and activity of family farms: Law of Ukraine dated 31.03.2016, No. 1067-VIII]. Baza danykh “Zakonodavstvo Ukrainy”. VR Ukrainy. Retrieved from: http://zakon0.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1067-19 [In Ukrainian].
  13. Hadzalo, Ya.M., Lupenko, Yu.O., Puhachov, M.I., et al. (2016). Rozvytok ekonomiky silskoho hospodarstva Ukrainy v 2011-2015 rr. : naukova dopovid [Development of the economy of agriculture of Ukraine in 2011-2015: scientific report]. Yu.O. Lupenko (Ed.). Kyiv: NNTs “IAE” [In Ukrainian].
  14. Demohrafichni prohnozy [Demographic forecasts]. (2019). Rozrobky. Retrieved from: https://www.idss.org.ua [In Ukrainian].
  15. Lupenko, Yu.O. & Mesel-Veseliak, V.Ya. (Eds.) (2012). Stratehichni napriamy rozvytku silskoho hospodarstva Ukrainy na period do 2020 roku [Strategic directions of development of agriculture of Ukraine for the period up to 2020]. Kyiv: NNTs “IAE” [In Ukrainian].
  16. Strizheus, A. & Kovalchuk, V. (2016). TOP 10 sostavliauschich proekta molochnoi fermy ot Danon [Top 10 constituents of the dairy farm project from Danone]. Аgroportal. Retrieved from: http://agroportal.ua/publishing/sobytiya/top10-sostavlyayushchikh-proekta-molochnykh-ferm-ot-danon [In Russian].
  17. Chai-khi, O.S. (2015). Prohnozuvania tendenzyi rozvytku vitchyznianoho rynku moloka ta molokoproduktiv [Prognosis the trends for the development of the domestic market of milk and dairy products]. Innovazyina economika, 1 (56), pp. 162–166 [In Ukrainian].
  18. Kozak, O.A., Hryshchenko, O.Yu., & Vasylchenko, O.M. (2018). Milk production in Ukraine: trends and perspectives. Ekonomika АРK, 8, pp. 26–34 [In English].
Read article: eapk_2019_12_p_16_27.pdf